is homefield/homecourt advantage situational?

[rivercitybirdie]

i feel stupid but this idea just came to me recently.

i see alot of places where they list home field advantage (either pure statistical where it's overstated generally for betting purposes or massaged statistical (say apply some common sense AND put constraints on it - say 5 point max in CFB).

basically though the idea seems to be promoted alot that you just slap a number on HFA and go with it. say 3 points for CFB... i realize there are few neutral site games so home vs. road is actually 6 points (2 x 3 points)

i started to wonder though about this: would someone like alabama football's HFA vary by the quality of the opponent? i'm thinking greater in tighter games where it really matters (alabama doesn't need HFA to throttle sunbelt teams)... of course it also comes down to coach and team's feeling towards home vs. road games... alabama probably bad example as they don't seem to run up the score.

anyway, an idea i'm toying with....................... something like NBA might be a better example where there are alot of games and a nice smooth continuium of spreads.

thanks in advance for any feedback.... i write partially as a bit of a blog for myself too.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

perfect example today and something that got me thinking.........

GSW is 7.5 point favourite in toronto today. they were 9.5 point fave vs. toronto in oakland a few weeks ago.... HFA must be more than 1 point (2 x 1 point = home/road = difference in spreads).

here i'm thinking maybe GSW will probably win game by a similar score at home or road (say 9 points)... but if the teams were more equal there'd be a bigger home/road gap.

i could be wrong but i don't think anything has changed with these teams since game in oakland (maybe JV out for toronto but that should maybe make spread bigger which is opposite to what i'm seeing).... toronto may be in revenge mode as they got screwwwed by horrible ofoul call on final possession in oakland. and toronto has fantastic HFA when motivated)

 

[ACE-ACE]

In the NFL over the last 10 years. It's 50 -50. No edge for home field in nfl

but I do give 1-2 points to home in the 1st 11 week as the season goes on I give 3